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German Security Policy in the 21st Century

Problems, Partners and Perspectives

Holger Mey
Translated from the German by Andrew Denison

160 pages, bibliog., index

ISBN  978-1-57181-663-4 $120.00/£85.00 Hb Published (March 2004)


Hb   Recommend to your Library

Description

"Berlin, 12 January 2030 – The crisis worsens. The Chancellor reaches for the telephone. He instructs his anteroom to put through a call to Germany's most important ally in order to discuss the situation and determine a further course of action." With whom would the chancellor speak? With the American, the French, or maybe even the Russian president? Or will the Chancellor only exercise representative functions while the real responsibility and decision-making authority lies with the President of the United Regions of Europe? This volume invites policy makers and politicians to use their imagination, to look beyond current events and take a long-term view on possible developments. Such projections, the author argues, lead to interesting conclusions for strategic planning.

Holger Mey is Independent Political Advisor and Director of the Institute for Strategic Analysis, Bonn, Germany.

Subject: Peace & Conflict Studies
Area: Germany



Contents

Chapter 1. Introduction

Chapter 2. The Future Europe and Its Security Environment: Four Illustrative Scenarios for the Year 2030

  • Europe in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
  • Scenario I: The United Regions of Europe (URE) in the Year 2030
  • Scenario II: A Europe of Diverse Alliances between Nation-States
  • Europe’s International Security Environment in the Year 2030: Two Scenarios
  • Scenario I: A Comparatively Peaceful International Environment
  • Scenario II: A Threatening Security Environment

Chapter 3. Security Trends

  • Which Parameters Will Influence the Future Security Environment?
  • The Role of Military Power in International Relations
  • Forces and Means
  • The Meaning of Military Power
  • Military and Economic Power in International Relations
  • The World of States and the International System
  • The Law of Armed Conflict
  • The Strategic Implications of Juridical Norms
  • Permissibility (ius ad bellum)
  • Conduct of War (ius in bello)
  • The Globalization of Economics
  • Global Civilizing Processes
  • Ideals and Ideologies
  • Public Opinion and Mass Media
  • Shift of Emphasis
  • Mode of Action
  • The Instrumental Use of the Media
  • The Operational Use of the Media
  • Conclusions
  • Population and Environmental Problems
  • Developments in Military Technology
  • Future Forms of Conflict
  • Warfare in the Twenty-First Century - A Systematic Overview
  • Three Categories of Military Conflict
  • Characteristics of Future Wars
  • Forms of Future War and Conflict

Chapter 4. Political Actors and Critical Regions: What Lies Ahead for Germany?

  • Germany
  • U.S.A.
  • The West European States
  • Other European States
  • The Russian Federation
  • China and Asia
  • The Caucasus Region
  • North Africa

Chapter 5. Risks and Challenges for Germany

  • General Remarks
  • Risk Categories
  • Possible Zones of Risk for German Security: An Overview
  • Future Forms of War and Armed Conflict: Implications for Germany
  • Direct Attack and Aggression
  • Further Forms of Armed Conflict

Chapter 6. Summary and Sensitivity Assessments: Germany’s Strategic Surroundings in the Year 2030

Chapter 7. Conclusions: The Bundeswehr and the Future Strategic Environment

  • Risk Calculus
  • Tasks and Roles in the Alliance
  • Summarizing Conclusions Regarding Selected Structural
  • Characteristics of the Armed Forces

Appendix I: The Bundeswehr of the Future: Selected Structural Characteristics

  • Size and Dimension of the Armed Forces
  • Presence and Availability of Personnel and Material
  • Quality of Arms Technology
  • Strategic Core Capabilities and Ranges
  • Operational and Tactical Core Capabilities

Appendix II: Possible Risk Areas for the Security of Germany—A Tabular Overview

  • Risk Area East
  • Risk Area Northeast Europe
  • Risk Area Eastern Europe
  • Risk Area Caucasus
  • Risk Area Southeast Europe
  • Risk Area North Africa
  • Risk Area Middle East
  • Risk Area Southwest Asia
  • Risk Area Central Asia
  • Risk Area Asia

Appendix III: Essays on Selected Topics

  • Comments on a Broad Definition of Security
  • Refugees as a Way of Waging War
  • Strategy and the Environment
  • Geostrategic Effects (Environment as a Strategic Factor)
  • Operational Effects
  • Influence of Military Activities on the Environment
  • Security-Relevant Environmental Changes, Especially of a Military Nature
  • Climate Change and Its Consequences
  • Diminution of Biotopes, Arable Lands, and Public Goods
  • Freshwater Resources
  • Resource Fossil Fuel, Especially Petroleum
  • Concluding Comments
  • On the Nature of War
  • A Means of Politics
  • Forms and Types of War
  • Violence and Its Limitation
  • Norms
  • Escalation
  • Violence and Counterviolence

Bibliography
Index

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